Best Picture Oscar predictions: OKC film community weighs in

OKLAHOMA CITY — The film world’s biggest night is upon us once again, as the 96th annual Academy Awards kick off this Sunday, March 10th with loads of buzz, bluster, and debate.

The ten films competing this year for the night’s biggest prize arguably make up the strongest and most diverse collection of Best Picture nominees in recent memory, with each contender providing a wholly unique spirit and singular voice in the race.

From the 20-kiloton blockbuster of “Oppenheimer” to the hot pink societal comedy of billion-dollar “Barbie.” From the warm throwback comforts of “The Holdovers” to the chilling, experimental study of evil that is “The Zone of Interest.” From the stomach-turning surrealism of “Poor Things” to the heart-shaking simplicity of “Past Lives.”

Perhaps more than ever before, this year’s Oscars crop really seems to have something for everyone, so let’s take a look at the ten contenders and check in with some luminaries of the local scene to see just how strong the competition is likely to be on awards night.

‘Oppenheimer’

The odds-on favorite by far to take Best Picture is Christopher Nolan’s sprawling, psychological, historical epic about the creation of the atomic bomb during World War II and the man who gave the world the means to destroy itself.

It’s a technical marvel, a complex, endlessly layered, and decidedly mature film about a challenging and complicated figure featuring some of the year’s best acting and most spectacular visual feats. It’s been called one of the finest films of this century, and it’s difficult to disagree.

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Oppenheimer

It’s also already been raking in awards all season and seems to have only gained momentum in recent weeks, meaning that chances are looking particularly good for “Oppenheimer” to win big Sunday night.

Nearly everyone seems to agree about its chances for victory, but Ben Stillwell White, an OKC-based producer behind 2022’s “Feel So Good” and the anticipated upcoming “Defiant Vanity,” is pulling for it from a personal place as well.

“Personally, I don’t remember enjoying a film last year as much as I enjoyed ‘Oppenheimer,'” he told Free Press.

‘Barbie’

It’s undoubtedly hilarious, it’s shockingly smart and irreverent, it’s unexpectedly pointed and emotional, and it’s so much better than a movie based on a toy has any right to be.

It’s “Barbie,” the worldwide box office phenom from acclaimed writer/director Greta Gerwig that came out swinging at patriarchal social structure and the mother-daughter dichotomy with an intelligence and a total disregard for Hollywood rules that it’s safe to say no one expected.

“Barbie” may be a clear indication of the earth-moving power of women and girls in entertainment, but it also struck some serious chords way outside its foreseen demographics, with even OKC comedy stalwart and Rodeo Cinema manager BradChad Porter declaring easily “I liked ‘Barbie’ the best out of the nominees.”

‘American Fiction’

First-time director Cord Jefferson hit pay dirt with this look at the life of a bitter, exhausted novelist who tires of swimming against the expected currents of Black entertainment and turns in an over-the-top caricature of “urban” literature to surprise success.

The comedy’s sights are set firmly on the persistence of racial exploitation in American entertainment – to remarkably sharp effect – but Jefferson’s script is just as astute in its commentaries on sexuality, mental health, generational trauma, and even arts competitions (like the Oscars.)

Odds are slim for “American Fiction” to nab Best Picture, but it’s a strong contender for Best Adapted Screenplay, and I expect it might even remain one of the most rewatchable films in the bunch long after the ceremony.

‘Past Lives’

Few films so quiet and so starkly realistic can pull off such a creeping, emotional gut-punch in the way that Celine Song’s “Past Lives” manages.

A boy and girl in South Korea are young and idealistically romantic. The girl goes with her family as they immigrate to the other side of the world, and the boy stays behind to grow up in his home. 24 years later, they meet as adults and consider how different things could have been.

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“Past Lives”

That’s it. That’s the whole plot. It’s as simple and as straightforward as can be, but Song infuses every scene with so much believable heart and soul and cultural weight that it sneaks up on you and leaves you reeling by the end.

Writer/director Katie Hightower – the creative force behind OKC-produced “Hailey’s Game” – is still staggered by the film even now.

“I’ve thought about that film at least once a day since I’ve seen it,” she said. “As a writer, I’m jealous. My goal as a filmmaker is to make people feel, and ‘Past Lives’ does that to you.”

‘Anatomy of a Fall’

Is it a murder mystery? Is it a courtroom drama? A dissection of modern relationships and parenting? A navigation of gender politics? A confrontation of mental health stigmas and selfishness?

French writer/director Justine Triet’s morally dense and conceptually focused psychological drama follows the aftermath of a man’s mysterious death and the resulting media circus trial to determine if his wife is a murderer.

What could be an overwrought legal thriller is instead presented delicately and impartially, gradually growing into a wider examination of gender expectations, disability, guilt, grief, and narcissism as the woman on trial attempts to stay connected with their partially blind son, who may be the key to the whole case.

“Anatomy of a Fall” is a frustrating, tense, and at times even upsetting film in all the very best ways. It’s an important film, even if its chances for a big Oscars win appear low.

‘Maestro’

Let’s be honest, “Maestro” – the story of American conducting/composing/songwriting/pontificating legend Leonard Bernstein and the complex life and relationship he shared with wife Felicia – looks like everyone’s least favorite of the nominees.

But that doesn’t mean it deserves to be counted out completely.

Directed by star Bradley Cooper, the performances throughout are spectacular in their own right, particularly Cooper himself as Bernstein and the always magnificent Carey Mulligan in the emotionally demanding and assertive role of Felicia, and their dialogue is as chaotically realistic and believably charged as you’ve ever seen.

But the film suffers only perhaps from trying a little too hard. It feels too close to the typical “Oscar bait” biopics of twenty or thirty years ago and less like a movie that can really compete in a post-“Parasite” or post-“Everything, Everywhere” Academy.

‘Poor Things’

There are few filmmakers in the world today that can cross boundary-pushing, limit-breaking subversion with prestige-level accolades like Yorgos Lanthimos, the strangely compelling mind behind “The Lobster,” “The Favourite,” and now the eye-popping, skin-crawling “Poor Things.”

Set in an oddly vivid, timeless, and entirely unexplained steampunk variation of Europe, Oscar-winner Emma Stone gives a career-defining performance as Bella Baxter, a science experiment of a woman attempting to live with a child’s brain.

Lanthimos is able to achieve something simultaneously gorgeous and revolting, with everything from the costuming, production design, original score, and makeup all more than deserving of Oscar Night recognition.

“Defiant Vanity” writer/director Benjamin Tefera agrees, even as he acknowledges its low odds for Best Picture domination.

“My prediction for Best Picture is also ‘Oppenheimer,’ but I’d like it to be ‘Poor Things,’” he said. “Emma Stone turns in the performance of a lifetime in Lanthimos’ best film to date, in my opinion.”

‘The Holdovers’

If there’s one thing the Academy does tend to love, it’s a comforting, traditionalist throwback to classic cinema, and it’s hard to think of a better example than Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers.”

Following the small group doomed to spend the holidays stuck at a snowy, uptight boarding school, everything from the film stock to the color grading to the music cues and on-screen credits add to the pitch-perfect recreation of a film from the story’s 1970s setting.

Lead acting mainstay Paul Giamatti and newcomer Dominic Sessa carry the film ably on their backs, but it’s Da’Vine Joy Randolph who emerges as the standout with a performance so genuine and so subtly heartbreaking that it’ll be easy to root for her as Best Supporting Actress.

Everything about “The Holdovers” is an example of simple, focused, classic filmmaking and how great a movie can be when it isn’t playing to the rafters or chasing box office records.

“Best Picture? “The Holdovers,” obviously,” said Sean Peel of OKC’s favorite cult-classic screeners and video-swappers VHS & Chill. “That was my favorite film of 2023, hands down.”

‘Killers of the Flower Moon’

What more can be said in Oklahoma about cinema giant Martin Scorsese’s epic exploration of the evils behind the Osage Murders and the sinister hands of power that turned the wheels of the 20th Century?

It’s arguably the most revered and respected film production in our state’s history, led by (I’m saying it) the single greatest living filmmaker on Earth.

Killers of the Flower Moon
Killers of the Flower Moon

The story is powerful, horrifying, and hits you with the weight of the sun in recounting the tragic murder and racist manipulation that helped to build Oklahoma. Having that story told across the full enormity of the film world, and recognized on its biggest night, is a landmark for both Native representation and for our state’s standing in cinema.

It’s perhaps been undersold slightly by reactions to its admittedly massive three-and-a-half-hour runtime, but make no mistake, this is Scorsese at his very best and most patient, allowing the world to establish itself and the real people at the heart of it to become clear in your mind.

“Killers of the Flower Moon” may very well carry the strongest chances for upsetting “Oppenheimer” on the big night, but Lily Gladstone appears to be a lock for Best Actress, and as the first-ever Native woman to even be nominated, a win would be historic.

‘The Zone of Interest’

Quite possibly the most experimental film to ever be nominated for Best Picture, everything about writer/director Jonathon Glazer’s cold, immovable “The Zone of Interest” is challenging to our minds, our eyes, our ears, and indeed our very souls.

The film arguably does not tell a story at all, rather it simply shows us the mundane family life of Nazi commander Rudolf Höss with his wife and children in their home just outside the gates of Auschwitz, which Höss is tasked with overseeing.

Perhaps no other film in history has ever quite captured the boring, simply humanistic side of pure, genocidal evil and complicity like this one, placing center stage both the industrialization and efficiency of mass murder and the ease with which people will accept and ignore unseen atrocities.

The Zone of Interest

The Holocaust plays out only in your ears as the unmistakable and unshakable sounds of abject horror and heart-shredding pain never cease in the scenes in and around the house.

It’s maybe too esoteric, too disquieting and cerebral, to clench the Academy’s biggest award, but of all the nominees, this is the one that’s seen the strongest response from some of the most discerning and studied cinema minds.

“There are a lot of strong Best Picture nominees this year, but I’d probably have to choose ‘The Zone of Interest,’” said Lisa Broad, Ph.D., Head of Film Programming at OKCMOA. “It’s a striking and unique cinematic experience that brings all the audio-visual powers of the medium to bear on essential questions of moral complicity and the nature of evil. I think it’s the film from this awards cycle that we’ll still be thinking and talking about in the years to come.”

The Academy Awards air Sunday, March 10th.

Local theaters across OKC, such as OKCMOA, Rodeo Cinema, Flix Brewhouse, and more will be showing some of these films in the coming weeks. Follow them online to check for showtimes.


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Brett Fieldcamp has been covering arts, entertainment, news, housing, and culture in Oklahoma for nearly 15 years, writing for several local and state publications. He’s also a musician and songwriter and holds a certification as Specialist of Spirits from The Society of Wine Educators.